Why firms should be cautious in using experience curves as a strategic guide in their operations?

January 16, 2009 Uncategorized | Comments (0) Don @ 8:50 pm

The equation for the slope of an experience curve is (1/m-1)*(1-exp(-kg*t)) or
(SF-1)*(1-exp(-kg*t)), where: t is time typically years, kg is the exponential growth rate

constant, SF is scale factor from the slope of an xy plot of scale of the facility vs investment

 in constant dollars, m is the number of dimensions of the production facility eg. 1 for linear

 like a pipe line, 2 for an area facility like a plate and frame filter press, and 3 for a volumetric

 facility like a tank. For a mature product slope becomes (1/m-1) or (SF-1).

(more…)


Tags: AIChE, American Institute of Chemical Engineering, analysis, Bruce Henderson, CHEMTECH, Donald Garnett, Donald I. Garnett, economic ecosystems, economic theory, economics, economy, Economy as Ecosystem, Encyclopedia of Chemical Processing and Design, experience curve, Experience Curves, geometry, GNP, graphs, gravity, Houston, industry, investment, Isaac Newton, macroeconomics, Michael Rothschild, money, Perspective on Experience, price, scale, scale factors, Texas, time, us dollar, zero population growth

Inflation and Real Growth

News, behavioral economics, economic theory, geometry | Comments (0) Don @ 4:02 pm

The post titled “Money” shows the GNP or money=k*(employed)^4 and volume=k*(employed)^2.16 and

price=k*(employed)^1.84. In the context of these posts the number of dimensions of the production

facilities, m=2.16 and the price exponent is (4-m). Differenting by parts results is the fraction of the change

in GNP that is real growth is m/4 and the part that is inflation is (4-m)/4. The value of m therefore determines

the fraction that is inflation and real growth. The value of m determine the fraction that is real growth, namely;

m=1 results in 25% real growth,

m=2 results in 50% real growth

m=3 results in 75% real growth.

Obama’s and others “put people to work” with bail-out government money will not help the economy much if

the number of dimensions of  those activities is low (e.g. a shovel in hand ditch digger) vs. high

(like building a petrochemical plant).


Tags: Add new tag, bail, bail-out, Bruce Henderson, business, Donald I. Garnett, economic ecosystems, economic growth, economic theory, economics, economy, Economy as Ecosystem, ecosystem, experience curve, Experience Curves, gdp, geometry, GNP, graphs, industry, investment, Isaac Newton, macroeconomics, math, Michael Rothschild, money, Obama, out, PDF, Perspective on Experience, scale, scale factors, time, unemployment, us dollar
  • Search

    • Home
    • About
    • Contact
  • Categories

    • behavioral economics
    • economic theory
    • geometry
    • News
      • Lectures
    • Publications
    • Uncategorized
  • Archives

    • February 2010
    • January 2010
    • November 2009
    • August 2009
    • July 2009
    • April 2009
    • January 2009
    • December 2008
    • April 2008
  • Meta:

    • Log in
    • Entries RSS
    • Comments RSS
  • Experience Curves | © 2007 All Rights Reserved.