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	<title>Experience Curves &#187; Lectures</title>
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	<description>The Nature of Economic Experience</description>
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		<title>Wed. Talk to AIChE in Houston, Texas</title>
		<link>http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2008/04/23/wed-talk-to-aiche-in-houston-texas/</link>
		<comments>http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2008/04/23/wed-talk-to-aiche-in-houston-texas/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Apr 2008 16:31:40 +0000</pubDate>
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				<category><![CDATA[Lectures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AIChE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[American Institute of Chemical Engineering]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[April]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Donald Garnett]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ecosystem]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[experience curve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Experience Curves]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geometry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Henderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Houston]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Isaac Newton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[macroeconomics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[math]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mathematics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rothschild]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[scale]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[scale factors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Texas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[us dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[zero population growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ZPG]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Will be at Houston Wed. to present to the American Institute of Chemical Engineering why Experience Curves have the Shape that they do and what the slope becomes for a mature product. It is because the slope of the x,y plot of log cumulative volume vs. log constant dollar price is (Scale factor &#8211; 1)*(1-exp(kg*time)).
The [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Will be at Houston Wed. to present to the American Institute of Chemical Engineering why Experience Curves have the Shape that they do and what the slope becomes for a mature product. It is because the slope of the x,y plot of log cumulative volume vs. log constant dollar price is (Scale factor &#8211; 1)*(1-exp(kg*time)).</p>
<p>The reason for the shape of experience curves is covered in <a href="http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/Geometry8.ppt" target="_blank">this power point presentation</a>. The material is more fully developed in the <a href="http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2008/12/27/the-geometry-of-experience-curves/" target="_blank">paper on the geometry of experience curves</a>. The presentation went smoothly on Wed. 25, April at Houston. One question raised is “what happens to the experience curve for a product that is progressing nicely along an experience curve and the demand plateaus”. The answer is that it turns horizontal for a while since we are looking at constant dollar prices. The real prices rise along with inflation as time goes on. The mathematics shown for exponential growth of a product are applicable with the demand being specified as constant, i.e. the growth rate constant can be zero. For products in a ZPG (zero population growth) economy this situation will ultimately prevail.</p>
<p>In the presentation the question of “is learning the cause of the experience curve” was posed and answered in the negative; “it is not”. Both Professor Henderson and Michael Rothschild books do not prove that it is. An analysis of the only data basis in Rothschild&#8217;s Economy as EcoSystem can be shown to be best accounted for by Newton&#8217;s force equal mass*acceleration.</p>
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