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	<title>Experience Curves &#187; economic ecosystems</title>
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		<title>Unlimited Power from Continental Drift 2</title>
		<link>http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2012/01/06/unlimited-power-from-continental-drift-2-2/</link>
		<comments>http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2012/01/06/unlimited-power-from-continental-drift-2-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Jan 2012 23:55:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Don</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Extended abstract aiche12d
]]></description>
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		<title>Unlimited Power from Continental Drift</title>
		<link>http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2012/01/05/unlimited-power-from-continental-drift-2/</link>
		<comments>http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2012/01/05/unlimited-power-from-continental-drift-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Jan 2012 02:03:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Don</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/?p=601</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Unlimited Power from Continental Drift, 284207
Donald I. Garnett, Industrial Chemicals, Retired E. I. du Pont de Nemours, Corpus Christi, TX
                                 Thursday, January 05, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Unlimited Power from Continental Drift, 284207<br />
Donald I. Garnett, Industrial Chemicals, Retired E. I. du Pont de Nemours, Corpus Christi, TX<br />
                                 Thursday, January 05, 2012<br />
Overview: Given a place to stand and a long enough lever Archimedes (1) said he could move the world.  Donald I. Garnett (2, 3) observes that anchoring one continent to another with a cable will let the world’s continental drift (4, 5) move you, namely: it will provide all the energy needed to power the entire worlds electrical (6) and other needs.  To capture the energy of the moving continents it will be especially convenient to catenary a cable across a fault line and let the mass of the cable plus any added weights desired be lifted in elevation against gravity by the moving apart of the continents.  Recovery of that energy can be accomplished using an electric generator driven by the pull of the cable in restoring the cables initial position.<br />
Restraining the movement of a continent the size of North America in theory could generate 10^10 times the electrical usage of the United States.  In principle its’ restraint might stop or prevent earthquakes in California, Oregon and Washington.<br />
The magnitude of the energy available exceeds that of tearing down the Rocky Mountains (in cable cars attached to electric motors) and dropping the rocks into the Pacific Ocean.  Had the erosion by Nature of the Rocky Mountains not occurred it would be closer to equivalent but still inferior?<br />
While this method may be applicable in many places at continental plate boundaries it is easily visualized for the Rift Valley in Africa.  Places where a cable would acquire tension by continental plate movement being preferred.  Movement at the face of any type fault however can be harnessed.  Lateral, vertical, or oblique plate movement energy recovery can be accommodated by inclusion of a spring in the cable.  Multiple echelon faults energy similarly can be harnessed using a network of spring loaded cables.<br />
Methods:  The energy associated with the drift of a continent is its ½ *mass * velocity^2 from a given anchor point.  In this discussion the anchor point is another continental plate reachable by a cable.  Across a fault where the movement is “apart” is especially preferred. The velocity is low but the mass is extremely large.  The usual ½ mass times velocity squared is also (½*mass*velocity/410.3Kw)*velocity, or Power*velocity.  With mass of a continent being say 10^22 lbs and velocity of 2.5 cm/year the power available is 10^15Kw or 10^10 times the total U. S. Electrical power.<br />
The anchor points need not be capable of restraining the continent but may be any amount consistent with the intended power output. The small movement of the continent and the preferred relatively high velocity of the cable driving the generator begs for a velocity enhancement like a block and tackle arrangement or a geared reducer run backwards.  In any event a 1000 fold block and tackle on top of another (for leverage per Archimedes) , etc., etc., will likely be in the final design.  Other methods of energy recovery are possible, including:<br />
(1)	 Spring compression and release, (2)  Hydraulic lifting of water for use in turbines, and<br />
(2)	  Hydraulic lifting of water for use in turbines on release.<br />
(3)	Gas compression and release.<br />
Historically of course part of the energy of the continents movement has raised mountains and provides the force multiplier and accumulator of millions of years of potential energy generated by the continents movement.  Recovery of that potential energy is available by tearing down the mountains, for example in cable cars connected to electric generators and dumping the rocks into the oceans continental trench.  The Rocky Mountains, the Alps, the Andes and the Himalayas for example are available at present.  Over time both energy and material (mountains) are conserved<br />
Results:   The result of using continental drift for essentially unlimited power for the human race is probably unfathomable, but nearly infinitely describable, including: No green house gasesThe hydrogen economy.<br />
1.	The elimination of nuclear power plants.<br />
2.	Electric cars with no emissions and other transportations.<br />
3.	Electric aero planes.<br />
4.	Unlimited agriculture from electric agro-lights.  Production can become volumetric vice area limited, further postponing Malthus effects.<br />
5.	The largest possible scale for energy production ergo least cost.<br />
6.	Waste disposal reduced to near zero.<br />
7.	Industrial production with only carbon, water and electricity.<br />
8.	CO2 impoundment or removal for its carbon content for global climate control.<br />
9.	Oxygen supplementation of the atmosphere for enhanced ozone protection of earth.<br />
10.	Population explosion from all of the foregoing.<br />
11.	Focused power into space.</p>
<p>Conclusions: Unlimited power from continental drift for the human race contains the essentials for future growth and sustainability of the race.</p>
<p><strong>Some Practical Considerations:</strong><br />
<span id="more-601"></span></p>
<p>While the movement of the continents has the potential power to overwhelmingly provide the needs of mankind, collecting it presents some practical problems that need to be overcome by Engineering.<br />
Foremost among them is the issue of scale.  If one supposes the power plants will be built say 100 years in the future, and the magnitude of the facility will be such as to satisfy the needs of humanity then it is safe to say the Scale will be at least 100 fold larger than the largest presently known facility.  The three gorges dam and power plant in China may be a useful reference for this visualization.  At 100 fold that scale the price of electricity/kwh will be down (in constant dollars) by 100 fold, assuming no increase in process complexity.  Basically that means hydro electric power with a similar hydrostatic head and volumetric flow.<br />
Major Parameters of the TGHP units and abroad power plants<br />
Parameters	Three Gorges Project<br />
CHINA	Grand Coulee<br />
U.S.A.	Itaipu<br />
Brazil/Paraguay	Guri<br />
Venezuela	Krasnoyarsk<br />
Russia<br />
Turbine<br />
Maximum Head(m)	113.0	108.2	126.7	146	100.5<br />
Rated Head(m)	        80.6	        86.9	        112.9	130	93<br />
Minimum Head(m)	71.0(61.0)	67.0	        82.9	        111	76<br />
Rated Output (MW)	710	  612/ 716	        715	        610	508<br />
Maximum Output(MW) 852	   827	    740/808	730	    508(505)<br />
Rated Spinning Speed(r/min)	75	85.7	90.9/92.3	112.5 93.8<br />
Runner Diameter(m)	9.525(9.800)	9.86/9.22	8.45	7.163	7.5</p>
<p>Generator<br />
Rated Capacity(MW)	778	718	823.6/737.0	700	500<br />
Maximum Capacity(MW)	840	710/825.6	823.6/766	805<br />
Frequency(Hz)	50	60	50/60	60	50<br />
Cooling	Water Cooling of Statar	Water Cooling of Statar	Water Cooling of Statar	Air Cooling 	Water Cooling of Statar<br />
Rated Voltage(KV)	20	15	18±5%	18	15.75<br />
Insulation Levels	F	B	F	B<br />
Thrust Load(t)	4,050(4,100)	4,700	4,056&#038;4,400	2,667<br />
Inner Diameter of Stator(m)	18,500(18,800)	18,790	16,000	13,650	16,100</p>
<p>Preferred Conditions:<br />
While this article started off with cables, multiple cables, springs, cable velocity enhancers and the passage of large amounts of time, the scale, and volumetric constraints imposed by costs lead to preferred conditions as follows and utilizes the energy accumulated over millions of years (not just a one-time event).<br />
•	Use gravity vice cables and springs.<br />
•	Use of water as the motive force for electric turbines or direct mechanical connection to the delivery conveyer.  That means on the coast, close to continental trenches.<br />
•	Hydrostatic head >200 ft., so use the continental trench at 10-20,000 ft., a scale advantage of 50-100 fold.<br />
•	Transport of the mass of the continent being sent to the bottom of the trench should be as a fluid itself.  Examples of two such masses are (1) the sands of the Sahara Desert, and (2) the mud volcanoes near the Mariana trench and elsewhere.  An additional alternative could be molten lava, for example in Hawaii where the ocean trenches are nearby.  Using<br />
•	the lava that has been cooled by Nature but is in danger of sliding off the island and creating tsunamis could be considered but I will leave that and other alternatives to others.<br />
•	This alternative suggests that the rock should be pulverized and transported as a fluid to the sea.  The Western Sahara is an example of where nature over time has pulverized mountains and the wind (fluid) has transported it to the sea shore (and beyond with a gradient of about 2% out to sea).  A 100 mile pipeline will yield a head for the power plant of 2 miles (10560 ft.) vs. say the 3 gorges head of 200 ft., for a scale advantage of at least 50 fold.<br />
•	The water for the electric turbines and used to transport the solid mass to the trench, may well have to be pumped from the sea to the mine, but considering the power generated by a solid of 2.5 specific gravity, dropping 10,000+ ft. Compared to the water at 1.03 specific gravity being pumped a small fraction of that height, should not be a limitation.<br />
•	The transport of the solids to the bottom of the trench could be done by basically a bucket elevator e.g., rail cars (at least 100 times the capacity of the present cars, i.e. a 5 fold scale increase in 3 dimensions or 125 fold) with return.  Such delivery and return may preferably be encased in piping.<br />
•	As mentioned initially some form of velocity enhancement (more leverage per Archimedes) should be included, and by moving continental shelf mass down to the continental trench at say 45 miles/hour is a velocity enhancement, over the 2.5 cm/year movement of the continent, of 2*10^10.  Combined with the head advantage of 50 fold yields an overall advantage of 10^12 over collecting the energy at a fault line (2, 11).<br />
•	Transfer of power from the rail car chain to the electric turbines could be by mechanical gearing or by suitable sealing around the rail cars and a larger diameter return pipe conduit (up to 2.5/1.0 times the area of the delivery pipe and its discharge and specified elevation above sea level) to supply electric turbines.  One could simply use the volume of water returned in the emptied rail cars by extending the return pipe in elevation of say 1000 to 5000 feet above sea level.  Other alternatives may include magnetic levitation of the buckets (rail cars) and one supposes magnetic braking could recover the electrical energy without need for a separate turbine/generator/power station.<br />
•	Mining of the sand deposits on shore may not be necessary.  Hydraulic dredging of offshore deposits as the source (mine) and sand slurry transfer to the pipeline system for delivery to the continental trench may be preferred.  Combined with magnetic levitation and magnetic braking for electricity generation (maglev) the system could be out of sight and out of mind for whatever benefits that may be for financial and aesthetic appeal.  Considering that there are continental trenches around continents the choice of location worldwide is almost infinitely variable.  While it is true that larger facilities have lower costs there may be merit in multiple facilities for the various multiple countries that will be involved.<br />
•	Population density in the area being mined has positive and negative benefits.  Lots of people help construction and product use.  Zero people help minimize resistance to the project.  Considering the scale of the project zero people would seem preferred and the Western Sahara would be preferred on land or under-seas for hydraulic operation.</p>
<p>Conservation of the Environment:  Unless the entire world’s continental drift is totally constrained the creation of mountains, volcanoes, rain, mud, sand, rocks etc., will be conserved over time.  Mass is neither being created nor destroyed, rather some of it is being returned to where it was at another time.  Basically material on the continental shelf is being returned to the continental trenches.  What people do with the product power will either help or harm the environment.  The creation of the power provides the opportunity to mankind to decide the environments’ and their own fate.<br />
What Scale is needed?  For the entire United States requirement in 2006 of 4.5*10^12 kwh or 600 gigawatts generating capacity the facility would be 300 times the scale of three gorges project in China or the U.S. Grand Cooley dam project using similar water flow and head.  With a 50 fold head advantage the scale would be 300/50= 6 times that of either of these facilities. Assuming a water flow of 3 fold increase for that facility would require an overall 2 fold increase over either of these facilities. The total world electric demand would be satisfied by 10 such facilities.<br />
Where are the facilities located?  Considering that there are continental trenches at the boundary of the continents and over millions of years of erosion by wind and water, that have accumulated on continental shelves, they can be almost any where one desires.  At some locations like Chile the continental trench is close by (e.g. 60 miles to 20,000 ft deep water) as well as having high elevation mountains near the coast. Others have broader continental shelves. It is not unreasonable to consider the exits (mouth) of major large rivers but the continental trenches may be less deep and farther away. This article is not a geological survey of the most economic locations; rather it is to observe that there are a very large number of candidates.<br />
When will these facilities be built?  Probably the time frame is 100 years in the future, say 2120.  Plants are seldom built to provide greater than 20 years of visualizable needed capacity so something like 5 generation of concept and engineering evaluation followed by plant expansion will likely occur.<br />
How much will electricity cost from a plant that is 300 greater capacity than the at present world’s largest?  If $0.10 will buy a kilowatt hour today then in 2012 dollars it will cost $0.10/(300)^(1/2)=$0.006/kwh.<br />
Why will Continental Drift Power (CDP) be preferred?  Depletion of oil and gas reserves are forecast to diminish significantly in 100 years, but it will be scale of operation and the low cost associated with the largest single plant output that drives Continental Drift Power (CDP) over the options of thousands of oil/gas wells and thousands of miles of distribution piping for its delivery (basically a 1 dimension activity).  Green energy is basically a one year at a time event (in 2 dimensions), yet the proposed continental drift energy source has been accumulating for millions of years.  In a way it has a 10^6 scale advantage over any earthbound green energy (and is scalable in 3 dimensions).  Energy sources that have advantages of scale and accumulation over time include continental shelves, coal (strip mining is essentially 2 dimensional), oil, gas and nuclear energy materials, and are concentrated forms of energy.  The competition between these accumulated sources will continue to play out on a cost basis.<br />
How will Continental Drift Power (CDP) come about.  I suppose it is not fair to misappropriate Winston Churchill and say “It is not the end, nor even the beginning of the end, but it is the end of the beginning” but the long road ahead would seem to make it appropriate.  The need for energy from something other than fossil fuels is well known but the scale of presently discussed alternatives are so low as to make them expensive and ineffective in meeting the needs of the future.  In the end it will be the scale, and accumulation of energy that will make continental drift energy prevail.<br />
Is CDP conserved and sustainable?    I am reminded of deriving differential equations in college wherein:Input – Output – Reaction=Accumulation.  The input output difference is our desired power with zero chemical reaction required and the accumulation is over millions and millions of years.  Over similar time frames it is conserving and fun to rewrite the equation:  Input – Output – Reaction –Accumulation = 0.  In other words it is conserving and sustainable for the human race for some time to come.<br />
Is there Historical president or perspective?  Tearing down mountains and dumping them in the sea is not a new concept but doing so to generate power for the world may be.  There is a centuries old fable (7) in China where mountains are moved for the convenience of the human residents.  Using hoes and baskets the family set out to dig up the mountain and dump it in the sea.  Persisting for generation after generation ad infinitum they expected to accomplish their task; the moral of the story being many tasks appear unachievable but with determination anything can be achieved.  It has also been exemplified in Mao Tse Tung&#8217;s telling of &#8220;Yu Gong Yi Shan,&#8221; in a very famous speech.<br />
No philosophical or political motive for this article is intended though it is agreed that it will be the people of the world that will cause the mountains to be moved to generate the power.  It is, after all, people that build the facilities in 3 dimensions over time and consume the product that is produced.<br />
Rather it is to emphasize that the Scale of this proposal is markedly greater than the fables (hoes and baskets, vs. hydroelectric dams and volumetric flows greater than major rivers) and that the accumulated material (ground up mountain over millions of years vs. the original solid mountain) provides the energy basis for and from moving mountains.<br />
Vertical Farming:<br />
The use of electricity for light source for farming in a vertical as well as areal dimension (2 horizontal) is not new and has been discussed in the Economist (9).  ‘Vertical farming: does it really stack up”.  The conclusion there is correct, namely that the economics of doing so demand large scale low cost electricity.  Given large scale low cost electricity farming can become 3 dimensional and therefore can be expanded at a greater rate than the growth rate of the population.  In the very long term feeding the population can become a limitation that can be avoided by making farming a 3 dimensional activity.<br />
World Population:<br />
Presumably the world energy needs will grow with its population.  Regardless of whose estimate one uses a significant increase beyond present will be required (10).  Production of energy will preferably be proportional to the population, or greater, simply emphasizing the need for very large power generating facilities.  Development of continental drift power (CDP) can presumably meet the demand within the next 100 years where population may increase 4 fold and continental drift power (CDP) can increase by 300 fold for each facility and 3000 fold for the world.  Enough margin for growth and reduced costs too.</p>
<p>Will there be adequate Financial Capability:  The financial capacity to do theses large project will grow in time with the population hence should not be a limitation.  For example the U. S. GDP alone may grow 10^4 over the 100 year period.</p>
<p>Other Benefits:  All of the results (benefits) listed on page 2 naturally flow from very large scale availability of electric power at low cost.  Nearly all are unattainable absent low cost power, e.g. the hydrogen economy, no green house gases, electric cars and airplanes, waste disposal reduced to total recycle, atmospheric modifications, vertical farming, even unlimited growth of the human race.  And the visualizable list goes on limited only by ones imagination and can include space exploration, human colonization of planets and stars for the propagation of mankind etc. , etc.<br />
Summary:<br />
(1)	The combined accumulated energy sources that make power from continental drift possible are:<br />
•	The radioactive decay of elements in the earth’s interior that cause continental drift.<br />
•	The sun powered wind that erodes the mountains, evaporates the seas and causes rain to fall.<br />
•	The potential energy from elevated mass acted upon by gravity.<br />
•	Subduction Zones. When two oceanic plates collide, the younger of the two<br />
plates, because it is less dense, will ride over the edge of the older plate.<br />
•	Continental drift power (CDP) has tremendous scale, ergo cost, advantages vs. other alternative power sources.<br />
•	Continental drift power (CDP) is conservative and sustainable.<br />
(2)	A velocity enhancement over continental drift of 10^10 is achieved by gravitationally transporting mass to trenches at a higher velocity than the continental drift rate.<br />
(3)	The low cost of Continental Drift Power (CDP) owing to its scale will become the preferred alternative power source.<br />
(4)	“It is not the end, nor even the beginning of the end, but it is the end of the beginning”, per            Churchill.</p>
<p>References:<br />
1.	http://scienceworld.wolfram.com/biography/Archimedes.html<br />
2.	This article: Copyright: Donald I. Garnett, 14206 San Felipe Dr., Corpus Christi, Texas, Tuesday, 26 April 2011.<br />
3.	http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/<br />
4.	http://library.thinkquest.org/17457/platetectonics/2.php<br />
5.	http://www.stockton.edu/~hozikm/geol/Courses/The%20Earth/Content%20Web%20Pages/Bugielski/webpage.htm<br />
6.	http://www.eia.gov/emeu/iea/Notes%20for%20Table%206_2.html</p>
<p>7.	http://english.cri.cn/4426/2007/01/15/167@185195.htm<br />
8.	http://www.story-lovers.com/listschinesestories.html<br />
9.	http://www.economist.com/node/17647627<br />
10.	http://www.sustainablescale.org/areasofconcern/population/populationandscale/quickfacts.aspx<br />
11.	http://physics-edu.org/energy_from_continental_drift.htm</p>
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		<title>Why is the GDP=k*(Employed)^4  ?</title>
		<link>http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2011/10/15/why-is-the-gdpkemployed4/</link>
		<comments>http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2011/10/15/why-is-the-gdpkemployed4/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Oct 2011 20:31:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Don</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/?p=575</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In an economic unit (like the USA) the employed are paid a wage.   That wage is dollars/employed.  In our three dimensional world the 3 dimensions are orthogonal.  One can move in one direction (say x) but not simultaneously in the other two (y and z).  Building or manufacturing something in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In an economic unit (like the USA) the employed are paid a wage.   That wage is dollars/employed.  In our three dimensional world the 3 dimensions are orthogonal.  One can move in one direction (say x) but not simultaneously in the other two (y and z).  Building or manufacturing something in space requires effort (employed) in each direction (dimension).  The cost of such manufacture is the wage rate (i.e employed)*(volume of production, i.e. the product of effort in the x direction * effort in the y direction * effort in the z direction).</p>
<p>Cost therefore is Employed*Employed*Employed*Employed, or Employed^4.<br />
Ergo, GDP=k*Employed^4.</p>
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		<title>Going Volumetric (n=3) with Agriculture</title>
		<link>http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2011/07/11/going-volumetric-n3-with-agriculture/</link>
		<comments>http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2011/07/11/going-volumetric-n3-with-agriculture/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Jul 2011 02:33:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Don</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/?p=570</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Agriculture, is primarily limited by area from the capture of the suns energy falling on earth.
While the industrial and agriculture revolutions have increased the number of dimensions being used, agriculture to date has remained limited to two dimensions and is therefore areal (n=2) not volumetric (n=3).
This limitation can be overcome by providing agro-lighting of the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Agriculture, is primarily limited by area from the capture of the suns energy falling on earth.</p>
<p>While the industrial and agriculture revolutions have increased the number of dimensions being used, agriculture to date has remained limited to two dimensions and is therefore areal (n=2) not volumetric (n=3).</p>
<p>This limitation can be overcome by providing agro-lighting of the fields.  They could/can become volumetric vice area limited.  What is needed is a source for that electricity that is essentially unlimited.</p>
<p>One essentially unlimited source of electricity is to use continental drift as that source.  As the continents move apart at a given fault line a cable across that fault can be loaded with weights and when the continents move apart the lifted weights can have their energy recovered.  An accumulation of the energy of continental drift of the continents over millions of years exists in the mountains that it has built and some have been ground to dust (sand) by the winds powered by the sun and blown out to sea (e.g. off shore of the west Sahara desert of Africa).  At such a place the gradient (of about 3%) down to the subduction trench can supply a head of >10,000 ft hydraulic head for a dredge supplied, reasonable length, pipeline driving a power station.  All continents have such subduction trenches and gradients to them, arising from wind or water born deposits of ground up mountains, ergo the world power needs can be supplied by such.</p>
<p>Copyright, Donald I. Garnett, 7/11/2011, Corpus Christi, Texas.<br />
Copyright, Donald I. Garnett, 12/6/2011, Corpus Christi, Texas.</p>
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		<title>Learning from Cumulative Volume?</title>
		<link>http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2010/02/27/learning-from-cumulative-volume/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Feb 2010 04:39:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Don</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[If the result of repeated activities by mankind always results in learning, what is it that causes mankind to adopt a new learned procedure?  Why does it always work no matter what the activity is?  And why does it affect cost of manufacture differently for different products?
The post &#8220;The Geometry of Experience Curves&#8221; [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If the result of repeated activities by mankind always results in learning, what is it that causes mankind to adopt a new learned procedure?  Why does it always work no matter what the activity is?  And why does it affect cost of manufacture differently for different products?</p>
<p>The post &#8220;The Geometry of Experience Curves&#8221; in this blog shows that the answer is: &#8220;That Men minimize their Time per unit of dimension&#8221;.  Thus providing the incentive (less time spent by men) and the reason (geometry difference) for each product being different. </p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Q:What Law of Nature Determines Price and Volume etc.</title>
		<link>http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2009/11/09/qwhat-law-of-nature-determines-price-and-volume-etc/</link>
		<comments>http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2009/11/09/qwhat-law-of-nature-determines-price-and-volume-etc/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:44:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Don</dc:creator>
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A: For an Economy, like say the U.S. where we have variables Employed Men, Price,Volume,Wages,Investment,Scale of Operation, Production Process Mean Dimensions of Radius R with Number of space dimensions being used = m, Dollars, [...]]]></description>
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A: For an Economy, like say the U.S. where we have variables Employed Men, Price,Volume,Wages,Investment,Scale of Operation, Production Process Mean Dimensions of Radius R with Number of space dimensions being used = m, Dollars, A Gross National Product, Specific Products and the change in time of these variables then:</p>
<p>For a change in Production of a Product with time the Behavior of Men is to Minimize their time/Per unit of Volume of the product, i.e. that ratio (dMen/dRadius with time)=0.</p>
<p>Using reduced values, or indexed values of these variables based on a given year for GNP, Price, Volume, etc. and the Fact that Dollars=Price*Volume=Wages*Men, and Volume=Radius^m gives a Slope for the Experienc Curve=(1/m-1)*(1-Exp(-k*t)) wherE k=growth rate constant for the product and t=time (usually years) .</p>
<p>Because &#8220;All Men involved minimize their time per unit of space dimension, with time&#8221;.  Thus this Law of Nature is claimed as Garnett&#8217;s Minimization Law</p>
<p>(more)</p>
<p>Inherent in the foregoing is also the fact that Investment=Scale^(1/m).</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Garnett&#8217;s Minimization Law of Human Behavior</title>
		<link>http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2009/08/24/garnetts-law-of-human-behavior/</link>
		<comments>http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2009/08/24/garnetts-law-of-human-behavior/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Aug 2009 04:16:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Don</dc:creator>
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In the world of Supply and Demand the money that one group of people are willing to spend for something is equal to the amount of Money another group of  people are willing to [...]]]></description>
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In the world of Supply and Demand the money that one group of people are willing to spend for something is equal to the amount of Money another group of  people are willing to provide (sell) that something.  The something can be anything, either goods (a product) or services.  Money is identical to the time of Employed men times their Wage rate as that is exactly what one can buy with money.  The production of that something in a physical facility has dimensons, like the Radius of a spherical tank brewing beer, and the quantity of beer or its Volume is proportional to the Radius raised to the power of the number of dimensions.  In this case V=R^(N)=R^(3), since the number of dimensions is 3.  In general, the economy is evolving, that is, it is a function of Time.  The rate of change with time for the variable, say Employed is dE/dT, and Radius  is dR/dT.  The behavior of people when it comes time to change supply and demand is defined as Garnett&#8217;s Minimization Law:</p>
<p>.</p>
<p>&#8220;People minimize their time per unit of dimension, namely d((dE/dt) / (dR/dT))/dT  = zero = 0 .</p>
<p>.</p>
<p>The result is that the Log(Money)=(1/N)*Log(Volume).  Also,</p>
<p>Log(Price)=(1/N-1)*Log(Volume)</p>
<p>and other relationships that can be worked out from Money=Price*Volume=Wages*Employed=Wealth+Costs,</p>
<p>.</p>
<p>and the fact that demand is frequently exponential with time.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Experience Curve of H1N1 Swine Flu</title>
		<link>http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2009/08/03/experience-curve-of-h1n1-swine-flu/</link>
		<comments>http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2009/08/03/experience-curve-of-h1n1-swine-flu/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Aug 2009 02:16:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Don</dc:creator>
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The price of the flu is death of a fraction (shown below) of those infected.  The volume is those that have been infected.  The experience curve of the h1n1 flu follows:
recent-us-deaths
Which has slope of [...]]]></description>
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The price of the flu is death of a fraction (shown below) of those infected.  The volume is those that have been infected.  The experience curve of the h1n1 flu follows:</p>
<p><a rel="attachment wp-att-508" href="http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2009/08/03/experience-curve-of-h1n1-swine-flu/recent-us-deaths/">recent-us-deaths</a></p>
<p>Which has slope of 2.</p>
<p>The number of dimensions m, normally being used is: Slope=1/m-1, hence in this case 1/m=2+1=3.</p>
<p>However, we are not infecting the virus it is the other way around.  Hence from the viruses point of view the number of dimensions is 1/m not m, and therefore=3.  It is a volumetric production rate.  Presumably the graph of deaths vs. invections will continue until the number of uninfected people is beginning to diminish, somewhere over half of the population.</p>
<p>The death rate per thousand infected people (the &#8220;fraction&#8221;) has been rising but recently has been diminishingas shown in:</p>
<p><a rel="attachment wp-att-511" href="http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2009/08/03/experience-curve-of-h1n1-swine-flu/recent-us-deaths1/">recent-us-deaths1</a></p>
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		<title>WCCE8 Presentation:  Research as Investment</title>
		<link>http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2009/07/25/wcce8-presentation/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Jul 2009 06:05:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Don</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Presentation made on August 24, 2009, in Montreal, Canada.
dig-presentation-v3
Power Point presentation &#8220;with recorded voice&#8221;.  Research as Investment
spare1a1-research-as-investment-power-point1
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]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="color: #ff0000;">Presentation made on August 24, 2009, in Montreal, Canada.</span></p>
<p><a rel="attachment wp-att-491" href="http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2009/07/25/wcce8-presentation/dig-presentation-v3/">dig-presentation-v3</a></p>
<p>Power Point presentation &#8220;with recorded voice&#8221;.  Research as Investment</p>
<p><a rel="attachment wp-att-458" href="http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2009/07/25/wcce8-presentation/spare1a1-research-as-investment-power-point1/">spare1a1-research-as-investment-power-point1</a></p>
<p><a rel="attachment wp-att-459" href="http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2009/07/25/wcce8-presentation/spare1a2-research-as-investment-power-point1/">spare1a2-research-as-investment-power-point1</a></p>
<p><a rel="attachment wp-att-460" href="http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2009/07/25/wcce8-presentation/spare1a3-research-as-investment-power-point1/">spare1a3-research-as-investment-power-point1</a></p>
<p><a rel="attachment wp-att-461" href="http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2009/07/25/wcce8-presentation/spare1a4-research-as-investment-power-point1/">spare1a4-research-as-investment-power-point1</a></p>
<p><a rel="attachment wp-att-464" href="http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2009/07/25/wcce8-presentation/spare2a-research-as-investment-power-point1/">spare2a-research-as-investment-power-point1</a></p>
<p><a rel="attachment wp-att-465" href="http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2009/07/25/wcce8-presentation/spare2b1-research-as-investment-power-point1/">spare2b1-research-as-investment-power-point1</a></p>
<p><a rel="attachment wp-att-466" href="http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2009/07/25/wcce8-presentation/spare2b2-research-as-investment-power-point1/">spare2b2-research-as-investment-power-point1</a></p>
<p><a rel="attachment wp-att-467" href="http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2009/07/25/wcce8-presentation/spare2c-research-as-investment-power-point1/">spare2c-research-as-investment-power-point1</a><a rel="attachment wp-att-468" href="http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2009/07/25/wcce8-presentation/spare2d1research-as-investment-power-point/"></a></p>
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		<title>Scale up of Investment with Pressure</title>
		<link>http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2009/07/16/scale-up-of-investment-with-pressure/</link>
		<comments>http://experiencecurves.com/ecblog/2009/07/16/scale-up-of-investment-with-pressure/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2009 01:17:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Don</dc:creator>
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Once you accept that the investment for a tank or reactor or container scales up with the 1/3rd power of volume then the scale up with pressure naturally follows.
If the rate of reaction of [...]]]></description>
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Once you accept that the investment for a tank or reactor or container scales up with the 1/3rd power of volume then the scale up with pressure naturally follows.</p>
<p>If the rate of reaction of a chemical reaction is proportional to pressure (P) then raising pressure will lower the volume required at the same time that it will raise the thickness of the walls to contain that higher pressure.  It follows that Investment will be:</p>
<p>Investment=k*(1/P)^(1/3)*P</p>
<p>Investment =k*P^(2/3)</p>
<p>If the reaction is proportional to the pressure squared (2 species-&gt;one species)</p>
<p>Investment=k*(P)^(1-2/3)=k*(P)^(1/3)</p>
<p>For a 3rd order pressure dependency on the reaction rate the Investment is independent of pressure, i.e.</p>
<p>Investment=k*P^(1-3/3)=k</p>
<p>For orders higher than 3 other things like heat transfer to/from the reactants (i.e. area or order 2),  or limiting conversion to limit temperature rise, or use of diluents to control temperature rise,  may become dominant, limiting the pressure effect between P^0 to P^(1/3).</p>
<p>By my memory the investment for polyethylene plants scale as the 1/4th power of Pressure.</p>
<p>The foregoing is applicable for a fixed production rate.  However if one is in the position of building a plant where the justification of the capital is a key element then one likes to consider investment per annual pound.  Larger plants tend to give lower investments/annual lb.  Since production rate is proportional to P raised to the power of 1,2, or 3 preceding the investment per annual lb will be proportional to Pressure raised to the power of -1/3, -5/6, -6/3=-2.  That being the case plants tend to be at the highest pressure and largest scale.</p>
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